Europe, as it gets greyer and more arthritic, risks becoming an old people's home. Slow decline, and then fall. Wrong. Nicholas Ebersdadt and Hans Groth have an interesting article in The International Herald Tribune:
Its aging population is exceptionally healthy. As a result, its people are more capable of remaining productive into their advanced years now than they used to be, and perhaps even more so than their American counterparts. "Healthy aging" in fact may turn out to be a trump card for enhancing prosperity and international competitiveness - if Europeans are willing to play it as such.
For example:
Western Europeans' robust health could translate to competitive advantages. For example, Western Europeans have distinctly better odds of surviving their working years than do Americans. This difference affects economic potential, not least because longevity shifts people's cost-benefit calculus about whether to pursue higher education: The prospect of living longer generally encourages investment in learning and skills and thus facilitates higher productivity.
So hooray then. We don't have to breed like mad or euthanize the unproductive, we just have to crack the whip over the oldies. Actually, let's not be too optimistic says the demographer Phillip Longman:
In the United States, for example, the dramatic increases in obesity and sedentary lifestyles are already causing disability rates to rise among the population 59 and younger. Researchers estimate that this trend will cause a 10–20% increase in the demand for nursing homes over what would otherwise occur from mere population aging, and a 10–15% increase in Medicare expenditures on top of the program's already exploding costs. Meanwhile, despite the much ballyhooed "longevity revolution," life expectancy among the elderly in the United States is hardly improving. Indeed, due to changing lifestyle factors, life expectancy among American women aged 65 was actually lower in 2002 than it was in 1990, according to the Social Security Administration. The same declines in population fitness can now be seen in many other nations and are likely to overwhelm any public health benefits achieved through medical technology. According to the International Association for the Study of Obesity, an "alarming rise in obesity presents a pan-European epidemic."
I suspect that both opinions are right. America and Europe will have a geriatric underclass of the fat, sick and unproductive, as well as a golden oldie majority who are fit, active and a rich resource that society should draw on. Class, as ever, will out.