By
Seymour M. Hersh
December
19, 2013
.
Barack
Obama did not tell the whole story this autumn when he tried to make the case
that Bashar al-Assad was responsible for the chemical weapons attack near
Damascus on 21 August.
In
some instances, he omitted important intelligence, and in others he presented
assumptions as facts.
Most significant, he failed to acknowledge something known to the US intelligence community: that the Syrian army is not the only party in the country’s civil war with access to sarin, the nerve agent that a UN study concluded ~ without assessing responsibility ~ had been used in the rocket attack.
In the months before the attack, the American intelligence
agencies produced a series of highly classified reports, culminating in a
formal Operations Order ~ a planning document that precedes a ground invasion ~
citing evidence that the al-Nusra Front, a jihadi group affiliated with
al-Qaida, had mastered the mechanics of creating sarin and was capable of
manufacturing it in quantity.
When the attack occurred al-Nusra should have been a suspect, but the administration cherry-picked intelligence to justify a strike against Assad.
In
his nationally televised speech about Syria on 10 September, Obama laid the
blame for the nerve gas attack on the rebel-held suburb of Eastern Ghouta
firmly on Assad’s government, and made it clear he was prepared to back up his
earlier public warnings that any use of chemical weapons would cross a ‘red
line’:
‘Assad’s government gassed to death over a thousand people,’ he said. ‘We know the Assad regime was responsible … And that is why, after careful deliberation, I determined that it is in the national security interests of the United States to respond to the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons through a targeted military strike.’
Obama
was going to war to back up a public threat, but he was doing so without
knowing for sure who did what in the early morning of 21 August.
.
.
He
cited a list of what appeared to be hard-won evidence of Assad’s culpability:
‘In the days leading up to August 21st, we know that Assad’s chemical weapons personnel prepared for an attack near an area where they mix sarin gas. They distributed gas masks to their troops. Then they fired rockets from a regime-controlled area into 11 neighbourhoods that the regime has been trying to wipe clear of opposition forces.’
Obama’s
certainty was echoed at the time by Denis McDonough, his chief of staff, who
told the New York
Times:
‘No one with whom I’ve spoken doubts the intelligence’ directly linking Assad and his regime to the sarin attacks.
But
in recent interviews with intelligence and military officers and consultants
past and present, I found intense concern, and on occasion anger, over what was
repeatedly seen as the deliberate manipulation of intelligence. One high-level
intelligence officer, in an email to a colleague, called the administration’s
assurances of Assad’s responsibility a ‘ruse’. The attack ‘was not the result
of the current regime’, he wrote.
.
.
A
former senior intelligence official told me that the Obama administration had
altered the available information ~ in terms of its timing and sequence ~ to
enable the president and his advisers to make intelligence retrieved days after
the attack look as if it had been picked up and analysed in real time, as the
attack was happening.
.
.
The
distortion, he said, reminded him of the 1964 Gulf of Tonkin incident, when the
Johnson administration reversed the sequence of National Security Agency
intercepts to justify one of the early bombings of North Vietnam.
.
.
The
same official said there was immense frustration inside the military and
intelligence bureaucracy:
‘The guys are throwing their hands in the air and saying, “How can we help this guy” ~ Obama ~ “when he and his cronies in the White House make up the intelligence as they go along?”’
The
complaints focus on what Washington did not have: any advance warning from the
assumed source of the attack. The military intelligence community has for years
produced a highly classified early morning intelligence summary, known as the
Morning Report, for the secretary of defence and the chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff; a copy also goes to the national security adviser and the
director of national intelligence.
.
.
The
Morning Report includes no political or economic information, but provides a
summary of important military events around the world, with all available
intelligence about them. A senior intelligence consultant told me that some
time after the attack he reviewed the reports for 20 August through 23 August.
For two days ~ 20 and 21 August ~ there was no mention of Syria. On 22 August
the lead item in the Morning Report dealt with Egypt; a subsequent item
discussed an internal change in the command structure of one of the rebel
groups in Syria. Nothing was noted about the use of nerve gas in Damascus that
day. It was not until 23 August that the use of sarin became a dominant issue,
although hundreds of photographs and videos of the massacre had gone viral
within hours on YouTube, Facebook and other social media sites. At this point,
the administration knew no more than the public.
.
.
Obama
left Washington early on 21 August for a hectic two-day speaking tour in New
York and Pennsylvania; according to the White House press office, he was
briefed later that day on the attack, and the growing public and media furore.
The lack of any immediate inside intelligence was made clear on 22 August, when
Jen Psaki, a spokesperson for the State Department, told reporters: ‘We are
unable to conclusively determine [chemical weapons] use. But we are focused
every minute of every day since these events happened … on doing everything
possible within our power to nail down the facts.’
.
.
The
administration’s tone had hardened by 27 August, when Jay Carney, Obama’s press
secretary, told reporters ~ without providing any specific information ~ that
any suggestions that the Syrian government was not responsible ‘are as
preposterous as suggestions that the attack itself didn’t occur’.
.
.
The
absence of immediate alarm inside the American intelligence community
demonstrates that there was no intelligence about Syrian intentions in the days
before the attack. And there are at least two ways the US could have known
about it in advance: both were touched on in one of the top secret American
intelligence documents that have been made public in recent months by Edward
Snowden, the former NSA contractor.
.
.
On
29 August, the Washington
Post published excerpts from the annual budget for all national
intelligence programmes, agency by agency, provided by Snowden. In consultation
with the Obama administration, the newspaper chose to publish only a slim
portion of the 178-page document, which has a classification higher than top
secret, but it summarised and published a section dealing with problem areas.
One problem area was the gap in coverage targeting Assad’s office.
.
.
The
document said that the NSA’s worldwide electronic eavesdropping facilities had
been ‘able to monitor unencrypted communications among senior military
officials at the outset of the civil war there’. But it was ‘a vulnerability
that President Bashar al-Assad’s forces apparently later recognised’.
.
.
In
other words, the NSA no longer had access to the conversations of the top
military leadership in Syria, which would have included crucial communications
from Assad, such as orders for a nerve gas attack. (In its public statements since
21 August, the Obama administration has never claimed to have specific
information connecting Assad himself to the attack.)
.
.
The
Post
report also provided the first indication of a secret sensor system inside
Syria, designed to provide early warning of any change in status of the
regime’s chemical weapons arsenal. The sensors are monitored by the National
Reconnaissance Office, the agency that controls all US intelligence satellites
in orbit.
.
.
According
to the Post
summary, the NRO is also assigned ‘to extract data from sensors placed on the
ground’ inside Syria. The former senior intelligence official, who had direct
knowledge of the programme, told me that NRO sensors have been implanted near
all known chemical warfare sites in Syria. They are designed to provide
constant monitoring of the movement of chemical warheads stored by the
military. But far more important, in terms of early warning, is the sensors’
ability to alert US and Israeli intelligence when warheads are being loaded
with sarin. (As a neighbouring country, Israel has always been on the alert for
changes in the Syrian chemical arsenal, and works closely with American
intelligence on early warnings.)
A chemical warhead,once loaded with sarin,has a shelf life of a few days or less~ the nerve agent begins eroding the rocket almost immediately:it’s a use-it-or-lose-it mass killer.
‘The
Syrian army doesn’t have three days to prepare for a chemical attack,’ the
former senior intelligence official told me.
‘We created the sensor system for immediate reaction, like an air raid warning or a fire alarm. You can’t have a warning over three days because everyone involved would be dead. It is either right now or you’re history. You do not spend three days getting ready to fire nerve gas.’
The
sensors detected no movement in the months and days before 21 August, the
former official said. It is of course possible that sarin had been supplied to
the Syrian army by other means, but the lack of warning meant that Washington
was unable to monitor the events in Eastern Ghouta as they unfolded.
.
.
The
sensors had worked in the past, as the Syrian leadership knew all too well.
Last December the sensor system picked up signs of what seemed to be sarin
production at a chemical weapons depot. It was not immediately clear whether
the Syrian army was simulating sarin production as part of an exercise (all
militaries constantly carry out such exercises) or actually preparing an
attack.
.
.
At
the time, Obama publicly warned Syria that using sarin was ‘totally
unacceptable’; a similar message was also passed by diplomatic means. The event
was later determined to be part of a series of exercises, according to the
former senior intelligence official:
‘If what the sensors saw last December was so important that the president had to call and say, “Knock it off,” why didn’t the president issue the same warning three days before the gas attack in August?’
The
NSA would of course monitor Assad’s office around the clock if it could, the
former official said. Other communications ~ from various army units in combat
throughout Syria ~ would be far less important, and not analysed in real time.
‘There are literally thousands of tactical radio frequencies used by field
units in Syria for mundane routine communications,’ he said, ‘and it would take
a huge number of NSA cryptological technicians to listen in ~ and the useful
return would be zilch.’ But the ‘chatter’ is routinely stored on computers.
.
.
Once
the scale of events on 21 August was understood, the NSA mounted a
comprehensive effort to search for any links to the attack, sorting through the
full archive of stored communications. A keyword or two would be selected and a
filter would be employed to find relevant conversations.
‘What happened here is that the NSA intelligence weenies started with an event ~ the use of sarin ~ and reached to find chatter that might relate,’ the former official said.
.‘This does not lead to a high confidence assessment, unless you start with high confidence that Bashar Assad ordered it, and began looking for anything that supports that belief.’
.The cherry-picking was similar to the process used to justify the Iraq war.
American
propaganda cartoon depicting the "rebels" as clowns intimating them
incapable of sarin production ~ of course Assad did it!
.
The White House needed nine days to assemble its case against the Syrian government. On 30 August it invited a select group of Washington journalists (at least one often critical reporter, Jonathan Landay, the national security correspondent for McClatchy Newspapers, was not invited), and handed them a document carefully labelled as a ‘government assessment’, rather than as an assessment by the intelligence community.
.
.
The White House needed nine days to assemble its case against the Syrian government. On 30 August it invited a select group of Washington journalists (at least one often critical reporter, Jonathan Landay, the national security correspondent for McClatchy Newspapers, was not invited), and handed them a document carefully labelled as a ‘government assessment’, rather than as an assessment by the intelligence community.
.
The document laid out what was
essentially a political argument to bolster the administration’s case against
the Assad government. It was, however, more specific than Obama would be later,
in his speech on 10 September: American intelligence, it stated, knew that
Syria had begun ‘preparing chemical munitions’ three days before the attack.
.
.
In an aggressive speech later that
day, John Kerry provided more details. He said that Syria’s ‘chemical weapons
personnel were on the ground, in the area, making preparations’ by 18 August.
‘We know that the Syrian regime elements were told to prepare for the attack by
putting on gas masks and taking precautions associated with chemical weapons.’
The government assessment and Kerry’s comments made it seem as if the
administration had been tracking the sarin attack as it happened.
It is this version of events, untrue but unchallenged, that was widely reported at the time.
An
unforeseen reaction came in the form of complaints from the Free Syrian Army’s leadership
and others about the lack of warning. ‘It’s unbelievable they did nothing to
warn people or try to stop the regime before the crime,’ Razan Zaitouneh, an
opposition member who lived in one of the towns struck by sarin, told Foreign Policy.
.
.
The
Daily Mail
was more blunt: ‘Intelligence report says US officials knew about nerve-gas
attack in Syria three days before it killed over 1400 people ~ including more
than 400 children.’ (The number of deaths attributable to the attack varied
widely, from at least 1429, as initially claimed by the Obama administration,
to many fewer. A Syrian human rights group reported 502 deaths; Médicins sans
Frontières put it at 355; and a French report listed 281 known fatalities. The
strikingly precise US total was later reported by the Wall Street Journal
to have been based not on an actual body count, but on an extrapolation by CIA
analysts, who scanned more than a hundred YouTube videos from Eastern Ghouta
into a computer system and looked for images of the dead. In other words, it
was little more than a guess.)
.
.
Five
days later, a spokesman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence
responded to the complaints. A statement to the Associated Press said that the
intelligence behind the earlier administration assertions was not known at the
time of the attack, but recovered only subsequently:
‘Let’s be clear, the United States did not watch, in real time, as this horrible attack took place. The intelligence community was able to gather and analyse information after the fact and determine that elements of the Assad regime had in fact taken steps to prepare prior to using chemical weapons.’
But
since the American press corps had their story, the retraction received scant
attention. On 31 August the Washington
Post, relying on the government assessment, had vividly reported on
its front page that American intelligence was able to record ‘each step’ of the
Syrian army attack in real time, ‘from the extensive preparations to the
launching of rockets to the after-action assessments by Syrian officials’. It
did not publish the AP corrective, and the White House maintained control of
the narrative.
So when Obama said on 10 Septemberthat his administration knewAssad’s chemical weapons personnelhad prepared the attack in advance,he was basing the statementnot on an intercept caught as it happened,but on communications analysed days after 21 August.
The
former senior intelligence official explained that the hunt for relevant
chatter went back to the exercise detected the previous December, in which, as
Obama later said to the public, the Syrian army mobilised chemical weapons
personnel and distributed gas masks to its troops.
The White House’s government assessment and Obama’s speech were not descriptions of the specific events leading up to the 21 August attack, but an account of the sequence the Syrian military would have followed for any chemical attack.
‘They
put together a back story,’ the former official said, ‘and there are lots of
different pieces and parts. The template they used was the template that goes
back to December.’ It is possible, of course, that Obama was unaware that this
account was obtained from an analysis of Syrian army protocol for conducting a
gas attack, rather than from direct evidence. Either way he had come to a hasty
judgment.
.
.
The
press would follow suit. The UN report on 16 September confirming the use of
sarin was careful to note that its investigators’ access to the attack sites,
which came five days after the gassing, had been controlled by rebel forces.
‘As with other sites,’ the report warned, ‘the locations have been well
travelled by other individuals prior to the arrival of the mission … During the
time spent at these locations, individuals arrived carrying other suspected
munitions indicating that such potential evidence is being moved and possibly
manipulated.’
.
.
Still,
the New York Times
seized on the report, as did American and British officials, and claimed that
it provided crucial evidence backing up the administration’s assertions. An
annex to the UN report reproduced YouTube photographs of some recovered
munitions, including a rocket that ‘indicatively matches’ the specifics of a
330mm calibre artillery rocket.
.
.
The
New York Times
wrote that the existence of the rockets essentially proved that the Syrian
government was responsible for the attack ‘because the weapons in question had
not been previously documented or reported to be in possession of the
insurgency’.
.
.
Theodore
Postol, a professor of technology and national security at MIT, reviewed the UN
photos with a group of his colleagues and concluded that the large calibre
rocket was an improvised munition that was very likely manufactured locally. He
told me that it was ‘something you could produce in a modestly capable machine
shop’. The rocket in the photos, he added, fails to match the specifications of
a similar but smaller rocket known to be in the Syrian arsenal.
.
.
The
New York Times,
again relying on data in the UN report, also analysed the flight path of two of
the spent rockets that were believed to have carried sarin, and concluded that
the angle of descent ‘pointed directly’ to their being fired from a Syrian army
base more than nine kilometres from the landing zone.
.
.
Postol,
who has served as the scientific adviser to the chief of naval operations in
the Pentagon, said that the assertions in the Times and elsewhere ‘were not based on
actual observations’. He concluded that the flight path analyses in particular
were, as he put it in an email, ‘totally nuts’ because a thorough study
demonstrated that the range of the improvised rockets was ‘unlikely’ to be more
than two kilometres.
.
.
Postol
and a colleague, Richard M. Lloyd, published an analysis two weeks after 21
August in which they correctly assessed that the rockets involved carried a far
greater payload of sarin than previously estimated. The Times reported on
that analysis at length, describing Postol and Lloyd as ‘leading weapons
experts’.
.
The pair’s later study about the rockets’ flight paths and range, which contradicted previous Times reporting, was emailed to the newspaper last week; it has so far gone unreported.
.
.
The pair’s later study about the rockets’ flight paths and range, which contradicted previous Times reporting, was emailed to the newspaper last week; it has so far gone unreported.
.
The White House’s misrepresentation of what it knew about the attack, and when, was matched by its readiness to ignore intelligence that could undermine the narrative. That information concerned al-Nusra, the Islamist rebel group designated by the US and the UN as a terrorist organisation. Al-Nusra is known to have carried out scores of suicide bombings against Christians and other non-Sunni Muslim sects inside Syria, and to have attacked its nominal ally in the civil war, the secular Free Syrian Army (FSA). Its stated goal is to overthrow the Assad regime and establish sharia law. (On 25 September al-Nusra joined several other Islamist rebel groups in repudiating the FSA and another secular faction, the Syrian National Coalition.)
.
The
flurry of American interest in al-Nusra and sarin stemmed from a series of
small-scale chemical weapons attacks in March and April; at the time, the
Syrian government and the rebels each insisted the other was responsible. The
UN eventually concluded that four chemical attacks had been carried out, but
did not assign responsibility.
.
.
A
White House official told the press in late April that the intelligence
community had assessed ‘with varying degrees of confidence’ that the Syrian
government was responsible for the attacks. Assad had crossed Obama’s ‘red
line’.
.
.
The
April assessment made headlines, but some significant caveats were lost in
translation.
.
.
The
unnamed official conducting the briefing acknowledged that intelligence
community assessments ‘are not alone sufficient’.
‘We want to investigate above and beyond those intelligence assessments to gather facts so that we can establish a credible and corroborated set of information that can then inform our decision-making.’
.In other words, the White House had no direct evidence of Syrian army or government involvement, a fact that was only occasionally noted in the press coverage. Obama’s tough talk played well with the public and Congress, who view Assad as a ruthless murderer.
Two
months later, a White House statement announced a change in the assessment of
Syrian culpability and declared that the intelligence community now had ‘high
confidence’ that the Assad government was responsible for as many as 150 deaths
from attacks with sarin. More headlines were generated and the press was told
that Obama, in response to the new intelligence, had ordered an increase in
non-lethal aid to the Syrian opposition. But once again there were significant
caveats.
.
.
The
new intelligence included a report that Syrian officials had planned and
executed the attacks. No specifics were provided, nor were those who provided
the reports identified. The White House statement said that laboratory analysis
had confirmed the use of sarin, but also that a positive finding of the nerve
agent ‘does not tell us how or where the individuals were exposed or who was
responsible for the dissemination’. The White House further declared:
‘We have no reliable corroborated reporting to indicate that the opposition in Syria has acquired or used chemical weapons.’
.The statement contradicted evidence that at the time was streaming into US intelligence agencies.
Already
by late May, the senior intelligence consultant told me, the CIA had briefed
the Obama administration on al-Nusra and its work with sarin, and had sent
alarming reports that another Sunni fundamentalist group active in Syria,
al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI), also understood the science of producing sarin. At the time,
al-Nusra was operating in areas close to Damascus, including Eastern Ghouta.
.
.
An
intelligence document issued in mid-summer dealt extensively with Ziyaad Tariq
Ahmed, a chemical weapons expert formerly of the Iraqi military, who was said
to have moved into Syria and to be operating in Eastern Ghouta. The consultant
told me that Tariq had been identified ‘as an al-Nusra guy with a track record
of making mustard gas in Iraq and someone who is implicated in making and using
sarin’. He is regarded as a high-profile target by the American military.
.
.
On
20 June a four-page top secret cable summarising what had been learned about
al-Nusra’s nerve gas capabilities was forwarded to David R. Shedd, deputy
director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. ‘What Shedd was briefed on was
extensive and comprehensive,’ the consultant said. ‘It was not a bunch of “we
believes”.’
.
.
He
told me that the cable made no assessment as to whether the rebels or the
Syrian army had initiated the attacks in March and April, but it did confirm
previous reports that al-Nusra had the ability to acquire and use sarin. A
sample of the sarin that had been used was also recovered ~ with the help of an
Israeli agent ~ but, according to the consultant, no further reporting about
the sample showed up in cable traffic.
.
.
Independently
of these assessments, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, assuming that US troops might
be ordered into Syria to seize the government’s stockpile of chemical agents,
called for an all-source analysis of the potential threat. ‘
.
.
The
Op Order provides the basis of execution of a military mission, if so ordered,’
the former senior intelligence official explained.
‘This includes the possible need to send American soldiers to a Syrian chemical site to defend it against rebel seizure. If the jihadist rebels were going to overrun the site, the assumption is that Assad would not fight us because we were protecting the chemical from the rebels. All Op Orders contain an intelligence threat component. We had technical analysts from the Central Intelligence Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, weapons people, and I & W [indications and warnings] people working on the problem … They concluded that the rebel forces were capable of attacking an American force with sarin because they were able to produce the lethal gas. The examination relied on signals and human intelligence, as well as the expressed intention and technical capability of the rebels.’
There
is evidence that during the summer some members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
were troubled by the prospect of a ground invasion of Syria as well as by
Obama’s professed desire to give rebel factions non-lethal support.
.
.
In
July, General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, provided a gloomy
assessment, telling the Senate Armed Services Committee in public testimony
that ‘thousands of special operations forces and other ground forces’ would be
needed to seize Syria’s widely dispersed chemical warfare arsenal, along with
‘hundreds of aircraft, ships, submarines and other enablers’. Pentagon estimates
put the number of troops at seventy thousand, in part because US forces would
also have to guard the Syrian rocket fleet: accessing large volumes of the
chemicals that create sarin without the means to deliver it would be of little
value to a rebel force.
.
.
In
a letter to Senator Carl Levin, Dempsey cautioned that a decision to grab the
Syrian arsenal could have unintended consequences:
‘We have learned from the past ten years, however, that it is not enough to simply alter the balance of military power without careful consideration of what is necessary in order to preserve a functioning state … Should the regime’s institutions collapse in the absence of a viable opposition, we could inadvertently empower extremists or unleash the very chemical weapons we seek to control.’
The
CIA declined to comment for this article. Spokesmen for the DIA and Office of
the Director of National Intelligence said they were not aware of the report to
Shedd and, when provided with specific cable markings for the document, said
they were unable to find it. Shawn Turner, head of public affairs for the ODNI,
said that no American intelligence agency, including the DIA, ‘assesses that
the al-Nusra Front has succeeded in developing a capacity to manufacture
sarin’.
.
.
The
administration’s public affairs officials are not as concerned about al-Nusra’s
military potential as Shedd has been in his public statements. In late July, he
gave an alarming account of al-Nusra’s strength at the annual Aspen Security
Forum in Colorado.
‘I count no less than 1200 disparate groups in the opposition,’ Shedd said, according to a recording of his presentation. ‘And within the opposition, the al-Nusra Front is … most effective and is gaining in strength.’
.This, he said, ‘is of serious concern to us. If left unchecked, I am very concerned that the most radical elements’ ~ he also cited al-Qaida in Iraq ~ ‘will take over.’ The civil war, he went on, ‘will only grow worse over time … Unfathomable violence is yet to come.’
Shedd
made no mention of chemical weapons in his talk, but he was not allowed to: the
reports his office received were highly classified.
A series of secret dispatches from Syria over the summer reported that members of the FSA were complaining to American intelligence operatives about repeated attacks on their forces by al-Nusra and al-Qaida fighters. The reports, according to the senior intelligence consultant who read them, provided evidence that the FSA is ‘more worried about the crazies than it is about Assad’. The FSA is largely composed of defectors from the Syrian army.
The Obama administration, committed to the end of the Assad regime and continued support for the rebels, has sought in its public statements since the attack to downplay the influence of Salafist and Wahhabist factions.
In early September, John Kerry
dumbfounded a Congressional hearing with a sudden claim that al-Nusra and other
Islamist groups were minority players in the Syrian opposition. He later
withdrew the claim.
.
.
In
both its public and private briefings after 21 August, the administration
disregarded the available intelligence about al-Nusra’s potential access to
sarin and continued to claim that the Assad government was in sole possession
of chemical weapons.
.
.
This
was the message conveyed in the various secret briefings that members of
Congress received in the days after the attack, when Obama was seeking support
for his planned missile offensive against Syrian military installations. One
legislator with more than two decades of experience in military affairs told me
that he came away from one such briefing persuaded that ‘only the Assad
government had sarin and the rebels did not.’
.
.
Similarly,
following the release of the UN report on 16 September confirming that sarin
was used on 21 August, Samantha Power, the US ambassador to the UN, told a
press conference:
‘It’s very important to note that only the [Assad] regime possesses sarin, and we have no evidence that the opposition possesses sarin.’
It
is not known whether the highly classified reporting on al-Nusra was made
available to Power’s office, but her comment was a reflection of the attitude
that swept through the administration. ‘The immediate assumption was that Assad
had done it,’ the former senior intelligence official told me.
Wishful thinking by the Samantha Power wing within the administration. Unfortunately, some members of the Joint Chiefs who were alerted that he was going to attack weren’t so sure it was a good thing.’‘The new director of the CIA, [John] Brennan, jumped to that conclusion … drives to the White House and says: “Look at what I’ve got!” It was all verbal; they just waved the bloody shirt. There was a lot of political pressure to bring Obama to the table to help the rebels, and there was wishful thinking that this [tying Assad to the sarin attack] would force Obama’s hand:
.“This is the Zimmermann telegram of the Syrian rebellion and now Obama can react.”
.
The
proposed American missile attack on Syria never won public support and Obama
turned quickly to the UN and the Russian proposal for dismantling the Syrian
chemical warfare complex.
Any possibility of military action was definitively averted on 26 September when the administration joined Russia in approving a draft UN resolution calling on the Assad government to get rid of its chemical arsenal.
Obama’s
retreat brought relief to many senior military officers. One high-level special
operations adviser told me that the ill-conceived American missile attack on
Syrian military airfields and missile emplacements, as initially envisaged by
the White House, would have been ‘like providing close air support for
al-Nusra’.
.
.
The
administration’s distortion of the facts surrounding the sarin attack raises an
unavoidable question: do we have the whole story of Obama’s willingness to walk
away from his ‘red line’ threat to bomb Syria?
.
.
He
had claimed to have an iron-clad case but suddenly agreed to take the issue to
Congress, and later to accept Assad’s offer to relinquish his chemical weapons.
It appears possible that at some point he was directly confronted with
contradictory information: evidence strong enough to persuade him to cancel his
attack plan, and take the criticism sure to come from Republicans.
.
.
The
UN resolution, which was adopted on 27 September by the Security Council, dealt
indirectly with the notion that rebel forces such as al-Nusra would also be
obliged to disarm: ‘no party in Syria should use, develop, produce, acquire,
stockpile, retain or transfer [chemical] weapons.’
.
.
The
resolution also calls for the immediate notification of the Security Council in
the event that any ‘non-state actors’ acquire chemical weapons. No group was
cited by name. While the Syrian regime continues the process of eliminating its
chemical arsenal, the irony is that, after Assad’s stockpile of precursor
agents is destroyed, al-Nusra and its Islamist allies could end up as the only
faction inside Syria with access to the ingredients that can create sarin, a
strategic weapon that would be unlike any other in the war zone.
.
.
There
may be more to negotiate.
We can just about count on the fact that if Obama says it, it's definitely a lie. Of course, George W. and the two before him were also good at this distortion of matters. Oliver Sachs in one of his books mentions how two different groups suffering from brain damage were able to tell immediately that the President was lying--it was probably Reagan though he does not say. One group was unable to follow words but could read emotions; the other could not read emotions but got the words. This is important because it means that one can detect lies in written material. It is not too hard after some practice time. It is the same skill that allows one to tell great literature from potboilers. And now we have thousand of gifted readers detecting the lies that officials tell and reporting on the net. The days of easy lying are over. Surely they must know this. Sachs work also lets us know that we all know a lie when we read or hear it--but our education and training causes us or some of us to ignore what we know to be true. This should make telling lies an especially painful and shameful act. But if one is shameless, it of course does not matter. Great article.
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