US BEGINS AFGHAN SURGE~CANADA PLANS EXIT

By ERIC TALMADGE,
Sat Feb 6, 2010
ADAN, Afghanistan

By the crack of dawn, the Royal Canadian Dragoons' armor was in position, fanned out across a dusty vineyard for Operation Tazi to secure a key land route into Kandahar from the Taliban.

It was a mission the Canadians have done countless times before in other Afghan places. But, this time, they weren't officially running the show. The local police chief was, and he wasn't there yet.

"You have to work on Afghanistan time," Master Cpl. Jason Dunnett, 27, of Oshawa, Ontario, said after the soldiers were issued their orders and briefed on what to expect. "We'll go when they are ready."

For Canada, Afghanistan has been a long slog.

Fighting its bloodiest conflict since the Korean War, Canada has paid a heavy price — 139 Canadian troops have died. With about 2,800 soldiers in the country, the third-largest contingent in the U.S.-led coalition, the Canadians have taken more casualties, proportionately, than any other.

But by the end of next year, they will be gone.

After four years of often-intense combat since moving down to Kandahar, the spiritual center of the Taliban, Canadian military planners are now fine-tuning their exit strategy, bringing the Afghans in as closely as possible to ensure that their hard-fought progress doesn't evaporate after they leave.

"We are killing insurgents with our right hand, and killing the insurgency with our left," said Capt. Jade Watson, a planning officer for the Canadian Battle Group in Kandahar. "We can offer a future. The insurgents can only offer a past."

Even as new U.S. troops are flowing in to begin their surge, however, the Canadians have learned that progress can vanish as easily as footprints in the sand.

Their departure will be deeply felt. The Afghan police and army, who will be called upon to fill the gap, are understaffed and poorly trained. Their ranks are riddled with corruption, and they are often not respected or trusted by the Afghan people.

Out in the field, the shift toward winning hearts and minds ~ and giving local forces as big a role as possible ~ is striking, but problematic.

About three-quarters of the way through the Khadan compound search, the police chief, Shir Shah, said he had seen enough. A village woman had died, a grave was being dug, and he didn't want to disrupt village life any further.

So the Canadians pulled back.

No weapons caches, explosives or suspected insurgents were found. No doors were kicked in, and the primary intelligence gleaned was about what the villagers needed ~ well pumps, and perhaps a school.

"We would have liked to see more, but it is his call," said Maj. Mark Popov, the commander of the reconnaissance squadron behind the operation. "The Canadian combat mission is ending. I don't have a crystal ball. But it's not all about fighting. You can't kill your way to victory."

Shah, meanwhile, was encouraged by what his 30 Afghan National Police officers had accomplished.

"There are some bad guys here, but mostly they are receptive to us," he said through an interpreter. "This isn't the Russians all over again. The Canadians are here to help, to build roads and schools. Most people appreciate that."

Ahem. That is not quite true but let's not quibble at the moment.

Though overshadowed by the Americans and British, Canada has played a crucial role in southern Afghanistan.

A key trade route to Iran, India and Pakistan, Kandahar is where the Taliban was born in the early 1990s. A city of 800,000, its population is mainly ethnic Pashtun, the same as the Taliban. And as the coalition shifts its strategy to securing population centers, Kandahar has come even more into focus.

Though it had in the past concentrated more on peacekeeping operations abroad, Canada's choice to do the heavy lifting in Kandahar was deliberate.

After staking out a place near the relative quiet of Kabul in 2002, Canada decided its military was ready and able to do more. Kandahar, violent and insecure, was the perfect proving ground.

But the troops have faced huge obstacles.

Only about 500 are actually part of the infantry battle group that is at the center of the mission. That has left the Canadians spread dangerously thin.

"There are times when I just don't have enough people to do the number of patrols I would like," said Popov, who goes by the name Major Mark when dealing with local officials because he doesn't want them to associate him with the Russians who invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and stayed for 10 years.

That equation is now changing.

The surge in U.S. and other coalition troops will concentrate on Kandahar and neighboring Helmand province because they must be stabilized if counterinsurgency is to move forward.

The Canadians here welcome the help.

"It's all good news," said Lt. Col. Simon Bernard of Task Force Kandahar. "The U.S. tsunami is coming. We talk a lot about the surge of troops, but it is also a civilian surge. The bottleneck will be the Afghan capacity to handle all the resources coming in."

Bernard said maintaining momentum over the next four months will be key.

The safety bubble in and around Kandahar ~ strategists call it the rings of stability and security ~ is easily popped.

Just before Operation Tazi got under way, an insurgent rocket hit inside Kandahar Air Field, injuring eight Romanian and Bulgarian soldiers. Though rocket attacks are common and often ineffective, the blast was jarring ~ about 22,000 coalition troops and civilians work out of British-run Kandahar Air Field, the busiest single-runway military airfield in the world.

From the Canadian perspective, the U.S. surge also has its risks.

Bernard said the fresh flow of U.S. troops will be a bigger target for insurgents. Increased skirmishes and bombings could ~ at least initially ~ burst the perception of safety among the local population that is essential for development projects to make headway.

"We are at a tipping point," Bernard said. "One of our concerns in long-term planning is that we see a seamless transition to the U.S. or whomever takes over."

But even if the fragile pockets of security hold, it is not certain that the progress Canada has made ~ particularly in development and reconstruction projects ~ will have a lasting effect.

Sheila Fraser, Canada's auditor general, said during a recent visit to the Canadian troops in Kandahar that the Canadian departure could leave a void.

"One of my questions is what are the political consequences of the decision to withdraw, who is going to take care of the projects that the Canadians are now doing," Fraser said. "These aren't things that can be done in a few months. Who is going to continue this?"

The Canadians are deeply involved in a dam project, are building schools, clinics and developing irrigation. At the outset of Operation Tazi, an officer was designated to seek out village elders and ask them what their village needed most ~ a practice which is typical of the Canadian presence.

President Barack Obama has said the U.S. also plans to begin its own withdrawal by July 2011, adding a further sense of urgency to getting the Afghans themselves to take a leadership role.

If Obama pulls the men out of Afghanistan as he did from Iraq, there will still be many many thousands remaining behind and the rest will be shipped to the next neocon war in process, Pakistan, Yemen, Syria, who knows for now? It is foolish to think that the "endless war" will be ended. That is just not part of the PNAC plan.

"2010 will be a pivotal year for Afghanistan," said Canadian Ambassador William Crosby. "I can't predict what the place will be like 18 months from now. My focus over the next 18 months is to deliver on Canadian promises."

Still, he said Canada's decision to set a date for the end of combat involvement was a good one.

"It takes away the argument that we are an occupying force. It sends a good message to Afghans that we are here to help, but we are not going to be here forever."