February
21, 2012
“An Israeli attack on Iran would create a disaster.” ~ Zbigniew Brzezinski
“The entire lake will become a killing field…the Gulf will run red with American blood.” ~ Military specialist Mark Gaffney.
Bombing
Iran could be the final nail in the coffin of America ~ a decaying and morally
bankrupt superpower where torture has been normalized and where the President
is now free to kill anyone he chooses, anywhere in the world, who he happens to
suspect is a terrorist.
Right
now, Iran appears to be the object of universal detestation, at least among
those who control the mainstream media and who are anxious to persuade the
easily duped masses that Iran is a major threat to civilization.
Iran
is perfectly capable of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz if it wishes, doing
immense damage to the US navy in the process. It possesses a vast array of
anti-ship weapons called Sunburn missiles, which it
has procured from Russia and China over the last decade. These are
state-of-the-art weapons developed by the Russians as a low-cost challenge to
the expensive, tech-heavy weaponry of the US. Specifically, they are designed
to sink ships, including America’s titanic aircraft carriers.
The
imminent conflict, which now belongs in the high probability spectrum, is
a conflict into which Russia and China cannot fail to be drawn. Their interests
are inextricably linked with those of Iran. You could say that Iran is their
semi-independent protectorate and ally.
If Iran were attacked and if Russia and China stood by and did nothing, they would lose face forever. They would be signaling to the world that they are weaklings, only too ready to cower at the feet of the American super bully. Indeed, they would then be next on America’s hit list.
Russia
has a new 100-ton monster of a ballistic missile in the pipeline. It is aptly
named Satan. And it will be used to
devastating effect against America if America gets too big for its boots and
gets overly aggressive.
Chinese
Major General Zhang Zhaozhong recently stated that if America or Israel attacked
Iran, “China will not hesitate to protect Iran ~ even with a third world war.”
A
few points need to be clarified.
The
US Navy is an efficient and professional organization, at the cutting edge of
modern warfare, but the Strait of Hormuz is not the kind of environment in
which the American navy would be invulnerable.
The
Iranians can be expected to have a field day in the narrow confines of the
Persian Gulf, virtually drawing American ships into a series of ambushes.
If
one samples the technical literature on various military websites, one finds
there is a lively debate going on about American ship defense systems. Nobody
claims that any such system offers full protection against ship missile
strikes. Right now, most ships remain vulnerable to such strikes, including
America’s leviathan aircraft carriers.
These impressive Nimitz-class aircraft carriers each come with a full
complement of 7~8 supporting ships, 70 or more assorted aircraft, and up to
6000 marines on board. In a 2004 article, military specialist Mark Gaffney, author of
Dimona: The Third Temple? (1989), opines: “The US Navy’s largest
ships, the massive carriers, have now become floating death traps….In the
Gulf’s shallow and confined waters evasive maneuvers will be difficult, at
best, and escape impossible….The Gulf will run red with American blood.”
As
for oil tankers, these are even more vulnerable than aircraft carriers. If
attacked, these will sink easily, clogging up vital sea lanes and doing immense
environmental damage to the entire Persian Gulf region.
It
is of interest to note that the US is busy working on a new generation of laser
defense to counter the sophisticated anti-ship missiles possessed by Iran.
However, these are still in process of development. This gives Iran a relative
advantage if it is attacked now
rather than later. Ironically, the longer America and Israel delay in attacking
Iran, the better their chances of successfully countering the retaliatory
measures they can expect from Iran.
Both America and Israel are unfortunately just not ready to wage the type of warfare they prefer to wage and at which they so excel: shooting fish in a barrel.
Unlike
Iraq, which the warmonger neoconservatives told us would be a “cakewalk” ~ easily
conquered in six weeks ~ Iran is unlikely to offer its American and Israeli
antagonists easy opportunities to indulge in their fish-in-a-barrel fantasies.
Our
courageous remote control warriors, hunched over their keyboards far from the
din of battle, may be able to rain down death and destruction on innocent
civilians in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia, meanwhile salving
their consciences by calling their victims “terrorists”, but there is nothing
they can do with their drones to stop Iran’s deadly missiles from blowing up
American aircraft carriers or sinking oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.
The
Sunburn is perhaps the most lethal anti-ship missile in the
world (see also here), designed
to fly as low as nine feet above groundwater level and at more than 1,500 miles
per hour. The missile uses a jerky pop-up maneuver for its terminal approach.
This enables it in effect to dodge, or jump out of the way, of the Phalanx and
other anti-missile defense systems: in short, to hit its target bang-on without
being intercepted en route.
Given
their low cost, these ship missiles are perfectly suited for close quarter
naval conflict in the pond like environment of the Persian Gulf.
The
Sunburn is versatile and easy to use. It can be fired from practically any
platform, including the back of a flatbed truck. It has a 100-mile range, which
is all that is necessary in the narrow Persian Gulf, with its 40-mile width
round the Strait of Hormuz.
Fired
from shore, the Sunburn will punch a room-sized hole through any
ship in the Strait of Hormuz in a fraction of a second.
These
missiles therefore present a serious threat to the US Navy. Their power to
inflict horrendous damage on hostile intruders simply cannot be exaggerated.
Developed
by the Russians, and made fully available to China and Iran, the SS-N-22
Sunburn, a supersonic anti-ship missile, has been described as “the most lethal missile in
the world today.” (See also here for other
anti-ship missiles designed, built, or operated by Iran. See here for a
discussion of anti-ship missiles and US capability to defend against them.)
Compared
to the Exocet, the Sunburn is a much larger and faster missile. It possesses a
far greater range. Its guidance system is spot-on. The Sunburn can deliver a
200-kiloton nuclear payload (a 750-pound conventional warhead) within a range
of 100 miles, more than twice the range of the Exocet. It seems the missile was
specifically designed
to defeat the US Aegis radar defense system.
The
Sunburn’s astonishing accuracy was demonstrated recently in a live test staged
at sea by the Chinese and observed by US spy planes. Not only did the Sunburn
missile destroy the dummy target ship, it scored a perfect bull’s eye. It succeeded in
hitting the crosshairs of a large “X” mounted on the ship’s bridge.
Unlike
America’s drones, the Sunburn is not in the business of creating “collateral
damage.” It does not kill innocent civilians by the score. It kills only the
enemy.
US ships in the Gulf will already have come within range of the Sunburn missiles and the even more advanced SS-NX-26 Yakhont missiles, also Russian-made (speed: Mach 2.9; range: 180 miles) deployed by the Iranians along the Gulf’s northern shore. Every US ship will be exposed and vulnerable. When the Iranians spring the trap, the entire lake will become a killing field.
The
Sunburn’s payload hit, with its 750-pound conventional warhead, is apparently
insufficient to sink an aircraft carrier, but it is enough to sink most other
ships and their crews. So it is generally opined in the technical literature.
No
conclusive studies, however, have been carried out to determine the effect of a
swarm of missiles
attacking an aircraft carrier simultaneously. Perhaps there is no need for such
a study. Common sense will tell you that a swarm of killer bees is much more
dangerous than a single bee. One bee you can easily swat; a swarm of bees you
cannot.
An
astute observer of the military situation has offered this comment:
Aegis and RAM systems do not stop Sunburn missiles. Those systems were designed to stop subsonic not supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles. Even then they were unsuccessful in stopping an Iraqi (subsonic) Exocet when it struck the American warship Stark during the Iran-Iraq war.
Supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles travel faster than a rifle bullet and it would take no more than three of them to sink an aircraft carrier. In fact, any surface ship is a floating coffin.
If anyone out there knows of a technology that can stop a rifle bullet in full flight, please let me know what it is.
“You
don’t have to be Hannibal preparing for the Battle of Cannae,” military
observer Russ Winter writes, “to see that the Strait is a potential “shooting gallery”.
The
Strait of Hormuz is in fact an ideal ambush location for large and cumbersome
ships that offer such easy targets you would have to be blind to miss them.
Without
a doubt, the Iranians have marked out every firing spot along the Persian Gulf
coast. Locating these hiding holes with low-flying attack helicopters will not
be easy. Helicopters can be shot down.
Equally
impressive is Iran’s missile range: 1500 miles
and growing. Hostile Bahrain and Qatar can easily be hit by the
longer-range versions of the Sunburn or Onyx. So can the Saudi oilfields.
Indeed
Israel itself, though further away, could suddenly find itself under a shower
of deadly missiles, not only from distant Iran, but from Hezbollah just across
the Lebanese border.
“This is going to be the Big One,” says Justin Raimondo, “a war that will make the invasion of Iraq look like a dress rehearsal for Armageddon.”
It
is commonly acknowledged that Israel cannot go it alone in fighting Iran. To
wage a successful war against Iran, Israel needs American help. Israel would
naturally prefer America to do its dirty work for it.
Should
Israel act alone, it would face the extraordinary problem of needing to refuel
its bombers en route to targets about 1,000 miles away and refueling them again
on the way back.
It
has been suggested that the United States should provide Israel with three
KC-135 refueling tankers. Some of these Israeli supporters in America claim
they do not themselves advocate an Israeli attack on Iran, but they are kindly
disposed to Israel and wish to see it supplied with tankers that would “extend
the effective range of Israeli aircraft” and “improve Israeli credibility.”
(See here)
Israel
has of course achieved a modest success in destroying the nuclear facilities of
two other relatively primitive countries in the region: Iraq and Syria. These
two past Israeli successes are not overly impressive. As achievements, they are
small beer. That is, compared to the massive challenges Israel would have to
face in Iran.
When
Israel destroyed Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor in June 1981, it was one
ground-level building it destroyed. That simple operation required 14 Israeli
aircraft. Israel’s other success, demolishing a partially constructed Syrian
facility in September 2007, involved targeting a rudimentary warehouse-like
structure built on a single floor ~ an exceptionally easy ground-level target.
The
potential targets in Iran are not only far more numerous: they are widely
dispersed and buried deep underground. Many of them are probably secret
facilities whose very existence is unknown.
There
is the fuel-enrichment plant at Natanz, a collection of below-ground facilities
used to produce enriched uranium. Then there is the newer Fordow
fuel-enrichment plant near Qom, built into the side of a mountain and buried
deep underground under several layers of reinforced concrete. It is generally acknowledged
that to crack open Fordow, and destroy its alleged nuclear weaponry, would be a
task beyond Israel’s modest capacity. At a pinch, America could do it, maybe;
but certainly not Israel acting on its own.
There
are two other Iranian nuclear sites Israel would need to attack: the
heavy-water reactor at Arak and the yellowcake-conversion plant at Isfahan.
There
are three possible routes to Iran: north over Turkey, south over Saudi Arabia,
or a central route across Jordan and Iraq. The US, having officially withdrawn
from Iraq in December, is no longer under obligation to defend Iraqi skies from
Israeli planes. The Iraqis themselves are of course unable to do so. (See
here.)
The
recent Robb-Wald Report
tells us that Israel has enough GBU-28 bunker-busting bombs to “severely
damage, though likely not completely destroy, Iran’s known underground nuclear
sites in a single well-executed operation.”
Perhaps
even this is no more than wishful thinking. Note the loaded phrase: “known underground nuclear
sites.” Best not to mention the unknown
ones.
To
achieve victory in Iran, Israel would be stretched to the limit. It would have
to deploy several B-2 stealth and B-52 bombers, fighter-bombers and
helicopters, along with ship-launched cruise missiles. It would not only
need to take out Iran’s underground nuclear facilities ~ an impossible
task ~ but it would have to destroy Iran’s communications systems, air defense
and missile sites, Revolutionary Guard Corps living quarters, munitions storage
depots, airfields, and ship and port facilities ~ not to mention missile boats,
minelayers and midget submarines.
Given
that Israel, for all its vaunted might, was unable to defeat valiant little
Hezbollah in 2006, the chances of it stealing an easy victory from Iran would
seem to belong in the realms of fantasy.
Not
all Americans are in favor of aiding and abetting Israel in yet another rampage
of wanton destruction ~ not after the crimes of Gaza which have left an indelible
stain on Israel’s already dubious reputation.
Destroying
Iran’s infrastructure may make sense to some callous Americans, but to many
others it would seem a cruel and vicious enterprise. To poison a population of
74 million people, most of them women and children, with tons of depleted
uranium, while putting thousands of other innocents into wheelchairs, is not an
achievement likely to bring honor or prestige to Israel.
Not
all of us have forgotten the lessons of history. We are cognizant of the fact
that Iran has not started a war for 300 years. That it simply wishes to be left
alone. And that it is Israel, rather than Iran, that seems to suffer from a
serious pathological problem ~ a “collective madness” ~ with
more than enough blood on its hands.
Speaking
on behalf of Israel’s countless critics, one political pundit writes:
The US cannot eradicate the Iran regime. It cannot bring Iran under its control, that is, not without creating a disaster for itself and the entire world….Doing that entails huge costs and risks to the US, all the countries in that region, and the many other countries that would be affected by it, including Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan….Right now, Obama must stop Israel from attacking Iran. (Emphasis in original). He must do so in the strongest ways available to him, like denying airspace to Israel for refueling its bombers. … The US [should] prevent Israel…from flying over Iraq and refueling.
Sound
advice, it seems to me.
Why
support Israel?
Cui
bono?
Iran has much more to offer America than Israel does.
Iran has oil in abundance, Israel has none.
Iran does not hold America’s political class to ransom.
Iran does not try to browbeat successive American administrations into putting Iranian interests before American ones.
Iran’s dual citizens do not spy on America or sell American military secrets to Russia and China ~ there are no Iranian Rosenbergs or Jonathan Pollards.
Iran does not coerce Americans into fighting and dying for it in foreign wars.
Iran does not expect $3 billion a year in handouts, and even more in loan guarantees that never get repaid.
Iran would be a far greater asset to America than Israel could ever be.
Israel is a liability and a burden.
More
fool America for cuddling up to a “friend” who has stabbed it in the back in
the past ~ the Lavon affair, the USS Liberty incident, the Jonathan Pollard
betrayal ~ and is more than likely to stab it in the back again at some time in
the foreseeable future.
Dump Israel.That’s my advice.Before Israel sets the world on fire, taking America with it.
Obama
has in recent months begun to make it clear to Israel that the United States
would not get involved in a war started by Benjamin Netanyahu without preliminary
US approval.
Indeed,
on January 20, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey,
informed Netanyahu that the US would not defend Israel if it launched an attack
on Iran that had not been coordinated in advance with the US.
In
May 2008, Netanyahu’s predecessor, Ehud Olmert, had requested the approval of
George W Bush for an air attack on Iran. To his credit, Bush had refused to
countenance any such move.
Netanyahu
has since defied the US administration by refusing to assure Washington that he
would consult them before making a decision to attack Iran.
Other
US officials have apparently made it clear to Netanyahu that the US, unless
fully consulted, would refuse to come to Israel’s aid in the event of Israel
declaring war on Iran unilaterally.
If
Israel did that, it would be on its own.
It
would be a mistake for Israel to assume that America is under obligation to
protect it from the consequences of its own folly. (For more details, see here.)
Writing
in the Huffington Post,
political commentator MJ Rosenberg advances the audacious theory that Israel
has no wish to go to war right now, but is more interested in flexing its
muscles and playing cat-and-mouse games with America.
It
wants to show everyone that Israel is now the Cat and America the Mouse:
“Netanyahu and his camp followers do not really want a war now. They just want it understood that they can dictate whether there is one or not. And when. In other words, they want to show who is boss.”
It’s
time for a showdown.
The
capital of America needs to be moved back to Washington. Tel Aviv is too far
away.
When Zbigniew Brzezinski says, “An Israeli attack on Iran would create a disaster”, he must be taken seriously.
An old hand, and an expert on
Russia, Brzezinski is the acclaimed author of The Grand Chessboard: American
Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives.
One cannot help wondering what Brzezinski thinks of the controversial statement made
by Leonid Ivashov, former member of the Russian Joint Chiefs of Staff, which
aired on Russia Today TV
on February 1, 2012:
Russia does not want any military operations to be waged against Iran or Syria. These two countries are allies, and both are considered guaranteed partners of Russia. A strike against Syria or Iran is an indirect strike against Russia and its interests.
Later
he adds, significantly, striking a chord with people like me who believe that
America is now a crypto-fascist state masquerading as a democracy:
Everybody should acknowledge that Fascism is making great strides on our planet. What they did in Libya is nearly identical to what Hitler and his armies did against Poland and then Russia. Today, therefore, Russia is defending the entire world from Fascism.
No
need to ask who the New Fascists are.
Just
turn on your television sets and you will see their smiling faces, telling you
how much they love and cherish you ~ as long as you vote for them ~ and as long
as you die for them in foreign wars for the aggrandizement of Israel.
It
certainly needs to be asked: How much longer will America continue to fight
Israel’s wars?
What
hold does Israel have over America?
Is
America prepared to sustain immense damage to its vital interests on behalf of
an unstable and insolent ally that remains, if numerous polls are to be believed,
the world’s most hated nation?
There
are some indications that not all American operatives, especially in the armed
forces and the CIA, are overly impressed with Israel’s increasingly
irresponsible behavior. A significant rift in the friendship appears to be
developing, a rift that will hopefully grow in time as America finally comes to
its senses.
Relations
could once again reach rock bottom, as when former US Secretary of State James
Baker uttered his infamous remark about Israel’s Jewish American supporters: “Fuck the Jews, they don’t even vote for
us.”
Former
Centcom chief and retired Gen. Joe Hoar recently complained of a certain shady
Israeli operation involving the terrorist group Jundullah, in which Mossad
thugs had the impudence to masquerade as CIA agents:
“Israel is playing with fire. It gets us involved in their covert war, whether we want to be involved or not.”
The
tension between long-suffering Iran and an insufferable Israel, goading it to
frenzy, is now at fever pitch.
Here
is part of an interview between journalist Eleanor Hall and Iran specialist
Geneive Abdo who is director of the Iran program at the National Security
Network in Washington. I have compressed drastically in the interests of
economy, but the full version can be read here:
ELEANOR HALL: Iran’s leadership says it’s sheer lies that it’s behind the [recent] attacks [on Iranian embassies in India and elsewhere] and that the Israelis have planted the bombs themselves to discredit Iran?
GENEIVE ABDO: Well I think that’s entirely possible. I mean, if you consider what the Israelis did for many years in Lebanon and other parts of the Middle East, that theory is not so farfetched.
ELEANOR HALL: How incendiary is the relationship between Iran and Israel right now? Are we looking at an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities…?
GENEIVE ABDO: I think it’s certainly a decision Israel is taking very seriously.
ELEANOR HALL: So how dangerous do you think the situation is right now?
GENEIVE ABDO: I think it’s very dangerous. Far more dangerous than any escalation tension we’ve seen in 30 years.
ELEANOR HALL: So, how dangerous could it become if the Israelis do strike?
GENEIVE ABDO: It’s an extremely dangerous situation. The Iranians will not take this lightly, and they will use all the resources at their disposal to attack. They will cause chaos in the region, because their whole survival is on the line….You know, they could launch attacks on Latin America. They’ve even said that they would launch attacks on American soil. They will send missiles to Tel Aviv….If you consider what the Israelis have done in Lebanon…I don’t think that gives us much hope…
If
Israel decides to launch an all-out attack on Iran, we can be sure of one
thing: the towers of Tel Aviv will come toppling down. Not necessarily now, but
one day in the distant future, when it is decided that vengeance is a dish best
served cold.
The
nuclear complex at Dimona could well be destroyed ~ if not now, later on, in
the fullness of time ~ making Israel an uninhabitable wasteland.
Given
its miniscule size, Israel could be destroyed in a single day, if not by Iran,
then almost certainly by Russia or China.
Only
a week ago, Alireza Forghani, head of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei’s strategic team, was quoted as saying: “It would only take nine
minutes to wipe out Israel.”
No
one seriously expects to see the annihilation of Israel right now, but Israel
will have to take the consequences of its actions one day.
Israel
will reap what it sows as Armageddon approaches.
The
clock is ticking…
Written by Zen Gardner; Video, voice by Snordelhans
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